2017 Set Length Speculation - Page 2

by **bodomdragon** » Thu Dec 29, 2016 7:58 am

I'd be very surprised if Moonsorrow or Death Angel get less minutes than Scar Symmetry or Mors Principium Est.

by **Phoenix** » Thu Dec 29, 2016 8:03 am

bodomdragon wrote:I'd be very surprised if Moonsorrow or Death Angel get less minutes than Scar Symmetry or Mors Principium Est.

Yeah but I'd love it if they did. Though realistically MPE and SS are both getting 45. Much as I want more.

by **acidbasement** » Thu Dec 29, 2016 9:12 am

General Zod wrote:At this point, I would think the historical question that would be most telling is, how close to sailing has a headliner ever been announced? Much like everyone else, I have my fingers crossed for that Amon Amarth announcement. However, as the days pass, that just seems less and less realistic. As a promoter, you pay a band like Amon Amarth to drive ticket sales. But with the cruise setting sail in 35 days, what impact on ticket sales would they even have?

The only reason to announce a headliner at the last minute would be to get more people in the habit of booking in the spring/summer, before much of the lineup is announced - the "trust me, it's going to be awesome" factor. Announcing Amon Amarth at the last minute might not do much for ticket sales this year (which really don't need much of a boost anyway), but could mean more people pull the trigger early next year.

by **General Zod** » Thu Dec 29, 2016 9:42 am

acidbasement wrote:The only reason to announce a headliner at the last minute would be to get more people in the habit of booking in the spring/summer, before much of the lineup is announced - the "trust me, it's going to be awesome" factor. Announcing Amon Amarth at the last minute might not do much for ticket sales this year (which really don't need much of a boost anyway), but could mean more people pull the trigger early next year.

I suspect if that was a practical strategy more promoters would use it. But promoters almost exclusively do the opposite and finalize their lineups, and at very least their headliners, many months before the event and often before tickets even go on sale. As for ticket sales not needing a boost, I would disagree. Every day the boat doesn't sell out he's losing interest on his money, as well as having the financial uncertainty that comes with not knowing how many tickets are going to be sold when all is said and done.

by **slayergeek** » Thu Dec 29, 2016 10:05 am

General Zod wrote:
cowboy71 wrote:Remembering 2016 we had 3 bands with 75 minute sets, 17 with 60 minutes, 40 with 45 minutes.

So if my above is correct we can expect one more band to be worth of 75 minute sets (Amon Amarth?), 1 worthy of 60 minutes and the rest 45 minutes.

At this point, I would think the historical question that would be most telling is, how close to sailing has a headliner ever been announced? Much like everyone else, I have my fingers crossed for that Amon Amarth announcement. However, as the days pass, that just seems less and less realistic. As a promoter, you pay a band like Amon Amarth to drive ticket sales. But with the cruise setting sail in 35 days, what impact on ticket sales would they even have?

Remember Wintersun was announced the day before sail for whatever reason, no a minor add. Not sure the rhyme or reason behind it, but then this is Andy we are talking about. I am sure there was a reason, but I certainly don't know what it was...or if that same reasoning would apply to Amon Amarth

by **ExtraneouS** » Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:03 am

AceHugger wrote:
Godflesh wrote:
Phoenix wrote:Yeah, and someone else didn't either. Maybe Alestorm.

Alestorm blew it because their guitarist "delivered a baby", remember?

Wtf???

Yup, that's the excuse they gave. IIRC, he was actually just REALLY hungover and couldn't play, so they bumped the set to later in the night.

by **CFH** » Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:24 am

cowboy71 wrote:Remembering 2016 we had 3 bands with 75 minute sets, 17 with 60 minutes, 40 with 45 minutes.

So if my above is correct we can expect one more band to be worth of 75 minute sets (Amon Amarth?), 1 worthy of 60 minutes and the rest 45 minutes.

Thank you! Allthough you forgot Gojira from that list, so according to this we would not be missing any more 60 minute bands, just one headliner and rest of them 45 min bands.

by **General Zod** » Thu Dec 29, 2016 12:27 pm

slayergeek wrote:Remember Wintersun was announced the day before sail for whatever reason, no a minor add. Not sure the rhyme or reason behind it, but then this is Andy we are talking about. I am sure there was a reason, but I certainly don't know what it was...or if that same reasoning would apply to Amon Amarth

All fair points. However, as you point out, they're not really equal. Also, I could see how things might have come together last minute with a band like Wintersun. Amon Amarth generally plans their schedule 18 months in advance. So if they are on the boat, it's been a done deal for a long while. To just sit on that info would seem incredibly strange.

by **cowboy71** » Thu Dec 29, 2016 3:26 pm

UPDATED - added Gojira, a definite 60 minute-er. And Nightmare a definite 45.

EDIT - moved Scar Symmetry to the 45 minute list, and GSO is a definite 45 minuter.

Here is my take based on historical evidence for those bands that have been on before, and my own judgement for the first-timers.

75 MINUTES
Anthrax
Testament

60 MINUTES
Orphaned Land
Suffocation
Kamelot
Amorphis
Therion
Annihilator
Grave Digger
Nile
Haggard
Arch Enemy
Devildriver
Uli Jon Roth
Amaranthe
Marduk
Mors Principium Est
Gojira

45 MINUTES
Death Angel (they got 60 minutes in 2011 but one 45min and one 60min in 2014)
Equilibrium
Kalmah
Stuck Mojo
Powerglove
Dying Fetus
Cruachan
Omnium Gatherum
Draconian
Saltatio Mortis
Xandria
Revocation
Stam1na
Moonsorrow
Unleashed
Serenity
Orden Ogan
Demolition Hammer
Vreid
Pain
Grave
Psycroptic
Avatarium
Misery Loves Co
Cattle Decapitation
Nightmare
Scar Symmetry
Ghost Ship Octavius

by **Phoenix** » Thu Dec 29, 2016 3:32 pm

Nightmare is most likely a 45 minute set as well.

We're all sort of coming to the consensus that Amon Amarth isn't getting announced, so if we take them out of the picture, who gets the 3rd headline slot? Gojira maybe? I still sort of think Grave Digger, to make up for them missing their 2015 pool deck set.

by **cowboy71** » Thu Dec 29, 2016 3:37 pm

General Zod wrote:At this point, I would think the historical question that would be most telling is, how close to sailing has a headliner ever been announced?

Headliners and when they were announced. Interesting that the 2 latest headliners announced are the same band - VENOM. Announced with 57 days to go for 2015 and 40 days to go for 2012.

2011
90 min. - Blind Guardian (26 Oct), Saxon (25 Feb)
75 min. - Amon Amarth (18 Dec 2009), Testament (26 April)

2012
90 min. - Nightwish (24 Jun), Venom (10 Dec)
75 min. - Children of Bodom (16 Oct)

2013
75 min. - Helloween (26 Sep), Rage & Lingua Mortis Orchestra (13 Jul)

2014
75 min. - Fear Factory (6 Apr), Symphony X (2 Apr)

2015
75 min. - Apocalyptica (22 Mar), Blind Guardian (15 Mar), Venom (26 Nov)

2016
75 min. - Cradle of Filth (31 July), Children of Bodom (26 June), Iced Earth (25 June)

by **cowboy71** » Thu Dec 29, 2016 4:08 pm

Phoenix wrote:Nightmare is most likely a 45 minute set as well.

We're all sort of coming to the consensus that Amon Amarth isn't getting announced, so if we take them out of the picture, who gets the 3rd headline slot? Gojira maybe? I still sort of think Grave Digger, to make up for them missing their 2015 pool deck set.

Could be Grave Digger.

Purely on Last.fm stats - Devildriver and Testament have the most 'listens' after Arch Enemy and Anthrax.

And Testament and Kamelot have the most likes on facebook after Anthrax and Arch Enemy.

Given those stats and the fact that they got a 75 minute set in 2011, my money would be on Testament.

by **Stained Class** » Fri Dec 30, 2016 12:29 am

Scar Symmetry is 45, but they'll probably play 2 completely different sets.

by **General Zod** » Fri Dec 30, 2016 6:34 am

cowboy71 wrote:Headliners and when they were announced. Interesting that the 2 latest headliners announced are the same band - VENOM. Announced with 57 days to go for 2015 and 40 days to go for 2012.

Thanks for the research.

As for your set length analysis, it looks like a fairly strong projection. Moonsorrow is the one that would surprise me if they only got 45 minutes.

by **mooyagi** » Fri Dec 30, 2016 1:48 pm

General Zod wrote:As for your set length analysis, it looks like a fairly strong projection. Moonsorrow is the one that would surprise me if they only got 45 minutes.

I'm pretty sure that they only got 45 minutes when they played the cruise years back. I don't feel like they've gotten much bigger since then. I'd be happy for them to have a longer set.

by **Downvod** » Sun Jan 01, 2017 8:07 pm

mooyagi wrote:
General Zod wrote:As for your set length analysis, it looks like a fairly strong projection. Moonsorrow is the one that would surprise me if they only got 45 minutes.

I'm pretty sure that they only got 45 minutes when they played the cruise years back. I don't feel like they've gotten much bigger since then. I'd be happy for them to have a longer set.

Moonsorrow did have 45 minutes in 2012. I really wish they would play longer... they have a lot of material and it's all composed of very long songs. I feel like 45 minutes is almost pointless for them.

by **Downvod** » Sun Jan 01, 2017 8:11 pm

cowboy71 wrote:UPDATED - added Gojira, a definite 60 minute-er. And Nightmare a definite 45.

EDIT - moved Scar Symmetry to the 45 minute list, and GSO is a definite 45 minuter.

Here is my take based on historical evidence for those bands that have been on before, and my own judgement for the first-timers.

75 MINUTES
Anthrax
Testament

60 MINUTES
Orphaned Land
Suffocation
Kamelot
Amorphis
Therion
Annihilator
Grave Digger
Nile
Haggard
Arch Enemy
Devildriver
Uli Jon Roth
Amaranthe
Marduk
Mors Principium Est
Gojira

45 MINUTES
Death Angel (they got 60 minutes in 2011 but one 45min and one 60min in 2014)
Equilibrium
Kalmah
Stuck Mojo
Powerglove
Dying Fetus
Cruachan
Omnium Gatherum
Draconian
Saltatio Mortis
Xandria
Revocation
Stam1na
Moonsorrow
Unleashed
Serenity
Orden Ogan
Demolition Hammer
Vreid
Pain
Grave
Psycroptic
Avatarium
Misery Loves Co
Cattle Decapitation
Nightmare
Scar Symmetry
Ghost Ship Octavius

You really think an hour for MPE, huh? That would surprise me, considering a band like Insomnium only got 45 last year.

I really think we should consider that Gojira might get 75. There is such an enormous buzz around that band right now. Their shows have all been PACKED.

by **Stained Class** » Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:56 pm

Yeah I would guess MPE 45 and Death Angel 60. The only reason they only got 45 for that one set was cus everyone had to shorten their sets that day to make the schedule work. But, that's just my guessing.

by **cowboy71** » Tue Jan 03, 2017 4:05 pm

Axxis definitely 45. Moving MPE to the 45 list and Death Angel to the 60 list

75 MINUTES
Anthrax
Testament

60 MINUTES
Orphaned Land
Suffocation
Kamelot
Amorphis
Therion
Annihilator
Grave Digger
Nile
Haggard
Arch Enemy
Devildriver
Uli Jon Roth
Amaranthe
Marduk
Gojira
Death Angel (they got 60 minutes in 2011 but one 45min and one 60min in 2014)

45 MINUTES
Equilibrium
Kalmah
Stuck Mojo
Powerglove
Dying Fetus
Cruachan
Omnium Gatherum
Draconian
Saltatio Mortis
Xandria
Revocation
Stam1na
Moonsorrow
Unleashed
Serenity
Orden Ogan
Demolition Hammer
Vreid
Pain
Grave
Psycroptic
Avatarium
Misery Loves Co
Cattle Decapitation
Nightmare
Scar Symmetry
Ghost Ship Octavius
Mors Principium Est
Axxis

by **BlackToothGrin** » Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:34 pm

Sgt. B wrote:I'd think Gojira will join Anthrax & Testament as a member of the 75 Minutes group.

Finger's crossed this!

by **cowboy71** » Thu Jan 05, 2017 5:02 pm

Trauma definitely 45 so too Trollfest.

Pencilling Gojira in for the third 75 minute set. Will be theirs for sure unless someone bigger (ie Amon Amarth) comes along.

75 MINUTES
Anthrax
Gojira
Testament

60 MINUTES
Orphaned Land
Suffocation
Kamelot
Amorphis
Therion
Annihilator
Grave Digger
Nile
Haggard
Arch Enemy
Devildriver
Uli Jon Roth
Amaranthe
Marduk
Death Angel (they got 60 minutes in 2011 but one 45min and one 60min in 2014)

45 MINUTES
Equilibrium
Kalmah
Stuck Mojo
Powerglove
Dying Fetus
Cruachan
Omnium Gatherum
Draconian
Saltatio Mortis
Xandria
Revocation
Stam1na
Moonsorrow
Unleashed
Serenity
Orden Ogan
Demolition Hammer
Vreid
Pain
Grave
Psycroptic
Avatarium
Misery Loves Co
Cattle Decapitation
Nightmare
Scar Symmetry
Ghost Ship Octavius
Mors Principium Est
Axxis
Trauma
Trollfest

by **Danny24601** » Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:46 pm

I think Gojira is a pretty good bet for the third headliner, but I'd put Kamelot in the running as well. Last time they played a 60 min. set, but that was in 2012, touring Poetry for the Poisoned. That was their weakest and worst-received record since Siege Perilous IMO, and they were in the middle of a protracted split with vocalist Roy Khan, with Fabio from ROF guesting as their singer on 70k. Since then they have released 2 strong, well received comeback records and established a strong new vocalist who fucking kills it live. Compared to say, Arch Enemy, they have a much better narrative for moving from the 60 to the 75 min. slot, and they are in the top ten most requested bands. And at least in Calgary, Canada, they play equivalent sized venues to Anthrax and Testament, though I'm not sure how they compare worldwide.

Gojira is a pretty good bet too, especially with two grammy nominations, but they are pretty young for a headliner. My impression is that most 70k headliners have deeper back catalogues than Gojira's 6 LP's.

Of course, the absence of a clear third headliner could indicate the late arrival of a certain group of Wrathful Norsemen, though such a late announcement would be peculiar. With all due respect to the impressive influence of Anthrax and Testament, Amon Amarth would be the biggest band on the boat in 2017 and to announce them so late would be very illogical. That said, 70k announcements are legendarily illogical so I get why we aren't quite counting them out yet.

by **scyll** » Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:40 pm

Oh I think Amon Amarth are definitely a possibility. My theory is that Andy planned on announcing them in the first 20 bands or so, but when he saw the cruise was selling so well, I think he MAY (or may not, who knows... it's Andy we're talking about

) have kept AA for a surprise à-la-Wintersun in 2015.

That might also totally be wishful thinking!

by **Jotunheimr** » Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:05 pm

Gojira are definitely a candidate for a 75 minute slot. They ranked higher than Anthrax on the lineup for Download 2016.

by **Godflesh** » Sun Jan 15, 2017 8:41 pm

Did Marduk really get 60mn before?
With Angra most likely taking a 60mn slot, that leaves only one open, for Overkill.

by **cowboy71** » Sun Jan 15, 2017 9:39 pm

Godflesh wrote:Did Marduk really get 60mn before?
With Angra most likely taking a 60mn slot, that leaves only one open, for Overkill.

Yup - Marduk 2 x 60 minute sets in 2011.

by **cowboy71** » Sun Jan 15, 2017 9:41 pm

Edenbridge and Manegarm 45 minutes, Angra to get 60 minutes again.

Pencilling Gojira in for the third 75 minute set. Will be theirs for sure unless someone bigger (ie Amon Amarth) comes along.

75 MINUTES
Anthrax
Gojira
Testament

60 MINUTES
Orphaned Land
Suffocation
Kamelot
Amorphis
Therion
Annihilator
Grave Digger
Nile
Haggard
Arch Enemy
Devildriver
Uli Jon Roth
Amaranthe
Marduk
Death Angel (they got 60 minutes in 2011 but one 45min and one 60min in 2014)
Angra

45 MINUTES
Equilibrium
Kalmah
Stuck Mojo
Powerglove
Dying Fetus
Cruachan
Omnium Gatherum
Draconian
Saltatio Mortis
Xandria
Revocation
Stam1na
Moonsorrow
Unleashed
Serenity
Orden Ogan
Demolition Hammer
Vreid
Pain
Grave
Psycroptic
Avatarium
Misery Loves Co
Cattle Decapitation
Nightmare
Scar Symmetry
Ghost Ship Octavius
Mors Principium Est
Axxis
Trauma
Trollfest
Edenbridge
Manegarm

by **AceHugger** » Mon Jan 16, 2017 6:22 am

acidbasement wrote:
General Zod wrote:At this point, I would think the historical question that would be most telling is, how close to sailing has a headliner ever been announced? Much like everyone else, I have my fingers crossed for that Amon Amarth announcement. However, as the days pass, that just seems less and less realistic. As a promoter, you pay a band like Amon Amarth to drive ticket sales. But with the cruise setting sail in 35 days, what impact on ticket sales would they even have?

The only reason to announce a headliner at the last minute would be to get more people in the habit of booking in the spring/summer, before much of the lineup is announced - the "trust me, it's going to be awesome" factor. Announcing Amon Amarth at the last minute might not do much for ticket sales this year (which really don't need much of a boost anyway), but could mean more people pull the trigger early next year.

^^Exactly this.^^ If it happens, - for years to come people will discuss the lineup which might not be hugely enthralling but someone will say 'Remember that year that Amon Amarth were the last to be announced. get your tickets early!!"

Personally I'm convinced it'll be John Cena. - He's always the surprise last announcement.

by **Godflesh** » Mon Jan 16, 2017 8:34 pm

If we went for Last.fm number of listeners, our 20 "top" bands would be VERY surprising (to me).
For comparison, Amon Amarth has 542641 listeners.

Anthrax 827197
Arch Enemy 617075
Testament 504700
DevilDriver 493654
Kamelot 417675
Amorphis 407946
Therion 368372
Gojira 357001
Pain 339071
Annihilator 288563
Xandria 287922
Angra 262179
Nile 256812
Kalmah 230345
Scar Symmetry 204355
Haggard 201206
Grave Digger 196320
Edenbridge 186960
Draconian 180697
Marduk 173219

by **cowboy71** » Wed Jan 18, 2017 1:42 pm

Latest adds - all 45 minutes

75 MINUTES
Anthrax
Gojira
Testament

60 MINUTES
Orphaned Land
Suffocation
Kamelot
Amorphis
Therion
Annihilator
Grave Digger
Nile
Haggard
Arch Enemy
Devildriver
Uli Jon Roth
Amaranthe
Marduk
Death Angel (they got 60 minutes in 2011 but one 45min and one 60min in 2014)
Angra

45 MINUTES
Equilibrium
Kalmah
Stuck Mojo
Powerglove
Dying Fetus
Cruachan
Omnium Gatherum
Draconian
Saltatio Mortis
Xandria
Revocation
Stam1na
Moonsorrow
Unleashed
Serenity
Orden Ogan
Demolition Hammer
Vreid
Pain
Grave
Psycroptic
Avatarium
Misery Loves Co
Cattle Decapitation
Nightmare
Scar Symmetry
Ghost Ship Octavius
Mors Principium Est
Axxis
Trauma
Trollfest
Edenbridge
Manegarm
Einherjer
Cryptex
Total Death
Touch The Sun

by **cowboy71** » Wed Jan 18, 2017 1:44 pm

That gives us 3 x 75 minutes, 16 x 60 minutes, 37 x 45 minutes.

If we are to be the same as 2016 then we can expect 1 x 60 minutes and 3 x 45 minutes.

So either the final act will be a 60 minute-er, or they will be big enough to replace Gojira for the 3rd 75 minute slot.

by **metalmaciejmetal** » Wed Jan 18, 2017 1:52 pm

AceHugger wrote:
Personally I'm convinced it'll be John Cena. - He's always the surprise last announcement.

Just to swerve the marks. Right when they think Daniel Bryan is the 30th entrant, out comes Cena. Wait, we're not fantasy booking the rumble?

by **macamatic** » Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:01 pm

cowboy71 wrote:That gives us 3 x 75 minutes, 16 x 60 minutes, 37 x 45 minutes.

If we are to be the same as 2016 then we can expect 1 x 60 minutes and 3 x 45 minutes.

So either the final act will be a 60 minute-er, or they will be big enough to replace Gojira for the 3rd 75 minute slot.

The fact that he saved it until the end suggests it's the latter, but I'm trying to apply logic to Andy's decisions and should really know better.

by **Phoenix** » Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:17 pm

metalmaciejmetal wrote:
AceHugger wrote:
Personally I'm convinced it'll be John Cena. - He's always the surprise last announcement.

Just to swerve the marks. Right when they think Daniel Bryan is the 30th entrant, out comes Cena. Wait, we're not fantasy booking the rumble?

If we're fantasy booking the rumble, Finn Balor wins. Obvs.

by **Godflesh** » Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:55 pm

cowboy71 wrote:That gives us 3 x 75 minutes, 16 x 60 minutes, 37 x 45 minutes.

If we are to be the same as 2016 then we can expect 1 x 60 minutes and 3 x 45 minutes.

So either the final act will be a 60 minute-er, or they will be big enough to replace Gojira for the 3rd 75 minute slot.

Exactly.
Overkill and Candlemass are candidates for the last 60mn slot, but not very good ones.
Waiting till the end to announce Overkill when you already announced Anthrax, Testament and Death Angel makes no sense.
Waiting till the end to announce Candlemass when it's been leaked in August would be so... anticlimatic.
I'm guessing it's going to be even more anticlimatic, either Striker or Grand Magus.

by **ExtraneouS** » Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:56 pm

Phoenix wrote:
metalmaciejmetal wrote:
AceHugger wrote:
Personally I'm convinced it'll be John Cena. - He's always the surprise last announcement.

Just to swerve the marks. Right when they think Daniel Bryan is the 30th entrant, out comes Cena. Wait, we're not fantasy booking the rumble?

If we're fantasy booking the rumble, Finn Balor wins. Obvs.

Isn't he still out with his shoulder injury though? If he doesn't return, then Undertaker will probably win to set up his final match. But in reality, we know this will happen:

by **Phoenix** » Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:25 pm

ExtraneouS wrote:Isn't he still out with his shoulder injury though? If he doesn't return, then Undertaker will probably win to set up his final match. But in reality, we know this will happen:

People did the math and if his recovery went well, being back in time for the Rumble is possible.

Don't talk to me about Roman Reigns. I can't even.

by **metalmaciejmetal** » Wed Jan 18, 2017 7:00 pm

Anyone but Roman, that's all i have to say there.

by **cowboy71** » Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:48 pm

Latest adds - all 45 minutes. One to go which will either bump Gojira from the 75 minute list, or be a 60 minute band.

75 MINUTES
Anthrax
Gojira
Testament

60 MINUTES
Orphaned Land
Suffocation
Kamelot
Amorphis
Therion
Annihilator
Grave Digger
Nile
Haggard
Arch Enemy
Devildriver
Uli Jon Roth
Amaranthe
Marduk
Death Angel (they got 60 minutes in 2011 but one 45min and one 60min in 2014)
Angra

45 MINUTES
Equilibrium
Kalmah
Stuck Mojo
Powerglove
Dying Fetus
Cruachan
Omnium Gatherum
Draconian
Saltatio Mortis
Xandria
Revocation
Stam1na
Moonsorrow
Unleashed
Serenity
Orden Ogan
Demolition Hammer
Vreid
Pain
Grave
Psycroptic
Avatarium
Misery Loves Co
Cattle Decapitation
Nightmare
Scar Symmetry
Ghost Ship Octavius
Mors Principium Est
Axxis
Trauma
Trollfest
Edenbridge
Manegarm
Einherjer
Cryptex
Total Death
Touch The Sun
Dalriada
Witchtrap
Striker

by **metalmaciejmetal** » Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:18 am

I realize the answer is SOON! but im getting restless. I want to start planning out my days. DAMN IT! The wait is worse than Christmas as a kid

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