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Hey UMC - people are dropping like flies
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    cowboy71
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    Hey UMC - people are dropping like flies

    by cowboy71 » Sun Oct 06, 2019 1:38 am

    Just a snippet, a small sample, of the posts here and on social media. There are DOZENS more comments like this out there.

    A little bit of DEFINITIVE news could easily have put an end to this. A "we've got some logistics to deal with" or "we are finalising some key parts of the lineup" or "we're aiming for 10th of the 10th"

    But instead, your silence, and crap SOON bullshit has lead to the following.

    (No names but please if I've listed a comment here of your's and you want it removed just let me know)
    "My +1 vacation has been cancelled by his boss due to an overflow of work in January. His boss said we have no bands, no booking codes, so there is reason to keep his vacations when everybody else is getting their vacations canceled in the department."
    "My dear 70K friends, as a six-time survivor, I am sad to announce that I will not make it to the next one. I am Brazilian and the change of dates has screwed us over, because it moved to a high season in Brazil and flight tickets are twice as much I have paid in 2019. Also, cabin prices are higher for the coming year. Possible payment plans have gone beyond affordability now due to the delay in sending codes and announcements of bands. "
    "I'm happy that I have started to spend my 70K fund on to other trips, totally worth it! Highly recommend!"
    "Not going. Too far to the end when shit gets more expensive. I don't want to chance a seat sale to not pay through the nose. Rolling out of Calgary, AB Canada."
    "Definitely not going, was planning on it but with no announcements still and no booking codes ill be spending my money elsewhere. Pretty infuriating"
    "Breaks my heart but i'm out.. gonna book something else in the next days.. i can't wait more weeks without knowing if there's a cruise or not because of my days off at work."
    "Welp... ain't going. You cool kids have fun. All the fun even."
    "Has even one person here thought about voting with your wallet and not rewarding Andy w/your money again? Just curious to see if anyone else got pushed onto this side. I for one feel great not to be giving him my money anymore."
    "I am not returning in 2020 for many reasons but I don't plan on returning ever again due to this."
    "I'm skipping this year for a bunch of reasons. However, the lack of announcements is not making that the hard choice it should be."
    "This was going to be my last year anyways (I need to go see other places and do other festivals) but it's about a 95% chance I'm not going this year now. "
    "He won't get ours anymore after this fiasco. We will still go unless we don't hear something by the middle of October."
    "I wasn't going anyway this year but following this shit would have made me cancel long time ago. I need things to be clear to make my plans way ahead."
    My plan is to book a flight on Tuesday. But if there's no substantial announcement by then, I will be flying elsewhere. May the best man win.
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    Pellaz
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    Re: Hey UMC - people are dropping like flies

    by Pellaz » Sun Oct 06, 2019 1:58 am

    But....what if "people dropping like flies" is exactly what UMC wants? :shock:
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    Re: Hey UMC - people are dropping like flies

    by cowboy71 » Sun Oct 06, 2019 2:01 am

    Pellaz wrote:
    Sun Oct 06, 2019 1:58 am
    But....what if "people dropping like flies" is exactly what UMC wants? :shock:
    Truly if that is what they are doing, then count me out too!
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    Re: Hey UMC - people are dropping like flies

    by Amalu » Sun Oct 06, 2019 6:52 am

    Pellaz wrote:
    Sun Oct 06, 2019 1:58 am
    But....what if "people dropping like flies" is exactly what UMC wants? :shock:
    I'm not a big fan of the "thinning out the herd" theory. Sure enough the Gold discount does reduce income by quite a bit. Now if that would be a problem, I would see UMC ditching that discount altogether. Some people would be pissed, sure, but the impact must be much less severe.

    By just waiting longer you have a basically incalculable risk at hand. UMC can not predict with certainty that less Gold booking will occur with that method. And they can even be less sure that the boat will sell out.

    With the wait this long I am sure that something isn't going to plan. Imho that can only be booking bands. The ship is booked and payed, security is under a multiple year contract fixed already before the last cruise, stage equipment should not be a problem, that's "same procedure as every year". What remains for organizing this festival are the bands and some small details as logo, merch, etc.

    I suspect that Andy does not want to announce anything and even less wants to start booking unless he is certain that he can deliver.

    I agree with Dallas, announcing on the 10.10. surely was not the plan at the beginning. Difficulties with booking bands might have pushed back announcements to a point where they just said "Well, fuck it! Now we can just wait for that tempting date."
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    Re: Hey UMC - people are dropping like flies

    by spooky » Sun Oct 06, 2019 7:39 am

    I have friends who were going to be first timers this year who said the hell with it because of all of this. So, if the "thinning of the herd" theory is what is going on, it might be a very bad strategy as well.
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    Re: Hey UMC - people are dropping like flies

    by deathmetalpat » Sun Oct 06, 2019 8:14 am

    The Thinning the Herd Theory explained
    2011
    All newbies ,drink beer buy merch
    2019
    Günther (9 time survivor) plans ahead takes vacation brings wife and kids
    Wife does wife stuff Günther Jr sucks down chocolate from the fountain after eating his 5th plate of food from the buffet.No drinks,No Merch


    Andy looks at wait list of 3,000 news cruiser who can’t get on the boat and says
    “Book great line up and wait to my zealots can’t come “
    Cruise still sells out with new people
    Who they are don’t matter,beer and merch!
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    Re: Hey UMC - people are dropping like flies

    by fishski » Sun Oct 06, 2019 10:23 am

    Any plans to email this to UMC?
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    Re: Hey UMC - people are dropping like flies

    by Amalu » Sun Oct 06, 2019 10:50 am

    deathmetalpat wrote:
    Sun Oct 06, 2019 8:14 am
    The Thinning the Herd Theory explained
    2011
    All newbies ,drink beer buy merch
    2019
    Günther (9 time survivor) plans ahead takes vacation brings wife and kids
    Wife does wife stuff Günther Jr sucks down chocolate from the fountain after eating his 5th plate of food from the buffet.No drinks,No Merch


    Andy looks at wait list of 3,000 news cruiser who can’t get on the boat and says
    “Book great line up and wait to my zealots can’t come “
    Cruise still sells out with new people
    Who they are don’t matter,beer and merch!
    I get the arguments for it and I still would say that it is not the reason for the delay. So many more ways to do this. Gold status is nothing that has to exist till the end of time. Imagine no discount and no early booking for survivors. That would thin the herd without nicely as well. The long wait will result in a much shorter wait list as well.
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    Re: Hey UMC - people are dropping like flies

    by Ravenlord » Sun Oct 06, 2019 11:49 am

    Amalu wrote:
    Sun Oct 06, 2019 10:50 am
    deathmetalpat wrote:
    Sun Oct 06, 2019 8:14 am
    The Thinning the Herd Theory explained
    2011
    All newbies ,drink beer buy merch
    2019
    Günther (9 time survivor) plans ahead takes vacation brings wife and kids
    Wife does wife stuff Günther Jr sucks down chocolate from the fountain after eating his 5th plate of food from the buffet.No drinks,No Merch


    Andy looks at wait list of 3,000 news cruiser who can’t get on the boat and says
    “Book great line up and wait to my zealots can’t come “
    Cruise still sells out with new people
    Who they are don’t matter,beer and merch!
    I get the arguments for it and I still would say that it is not the reason for the delay. So many more ways to do this. Gold status is nothing that has to exist till the end of time. Imagine no discount and no early booking for survivors. That would thin the herd without nicely as well. The long wait will result in a much shorter wait list as well.
    Agreed. People seem to forget that the customer base for this cruise is predominantly international. So unless a good portion of that list of 3000 live in Florida, they are screwing a lot of people who have to fly in from different countries and continents. And I'm sure a lot of the waiting list is probably not from the US.

    And to support the things are going wrong theory: There have been some signs of life recently with small updates on the website and fb with videos and calendars etc. But the 2 payment dates that we have seen have both come and gone. Oct 3rd implied that there was a booking email intended to be sent out recently. That date, as well as the original Sept 25th have come and gone and there is still no update which tells me something has gone wrong that stopped them sending out booking codes.
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    Re: Hey UMC - people are dropping like flies

    by deathmetalpat » Sun Oct 06, 2019 4:04 pm

    Amalu wrote:
    Sun Oct 06, 2019 10:50 am
    deathmetalpat wrote:
    Sun Oct 06, 2019 8:14 am
    The Thinning the Herd Theory explained
    2011
    All newbies ,drink beer buy merch
    2019
    Günther (9 time survivor) plans ahead takes vacation brings wife and kids
    Wife does wife stuff Günther Jr sucks down chocolate from the fountain after eating his 5th plate of food from the buffet.No drinks,No Merch


    Andy looks at wait list of 3,000 news cruiser who can’t get on the boat and says
    “Book great line up and wait to my zealots can’t come “
    Cruise still sells out with new people
    Who they are don’t matter,beer and merch!
    I get the arguments for it and I still would say that it is not the reason for the delay. So many more ways to do this. Gold status is nothing that has to exist till the end of time. Imagine no discount and no early booking for survivors. That would thin the herd without nicely as well. The long wait will result in a much shorter wait list as well.
    Okay let say 70,000 tons just priced this cruise to get into the black with the current cruiser makeup.So he just increases prices by 30% (just a guess) and says okay.Well this prices out Günther plus 3 as well and now he has priced out a lot of people.Even the people on the wait list.He likes the pricing because people of many economic levels can get on the boat.Read his interview,”people think everything is included,it isn’t’ all those extra feedings add up.If you were on this cruise at the beginning you will understand,you had very limited options to eat and times.The difference between the early cruises and the later ones is huge food bill wise I imagine.Look at the marketing 70,000 is your family,don’t hey bring your family.I am sure Andy would not rather do this ,but planning in advance and paying for airfare is just harder for families.Just a business decision to keep the boat going,those other rock cruises only have maybe a quarter to a third of the bands.That would be the other way out but they have the magic formula of 50 people to a band ,it works most of the bands can walk around (the one that do ) without too many hassles.Plus with 60 bands they get some very outgoing band members that help with the more reserved that don’t want mush interaction with people.The formula works except they probably never imagined the Günther plus 3 effect.
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    Re: Hey UMC - people are dropping like flies

    by cowboy71 » Sun Oct 06, 2019 4:22 pm

    Know what blows your Gunther theory though?

    I brought my son for the first time this year and was hoping to bring him next year, and his mother.They both eat probably half as much as a full grown metal head and and both enjoy metal which means I'm buying three times as much merch as previously.

    I don't think there would be many Gunthers on 70k (we were told when checking in the little guy that the percentage of kids on the boat in 2019 was 0.1%)
    Last edited by cowboy71 on Sun Oct 06, 2019 5:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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    Re: Hey UMC - people are dropping like flies

    by cowboy71 » Sun Oct 06, 2019 5:25 pm

    Ravenlord wrote:
    Sun Oct 06, 2019 11:49 am
    And to support the things are going wrong theory: There have been some signs of life recently with small updates on the website and fb with videos and calendars etc. But the 2 payment dates that we have seen have both come and gone. Oct 3rd implied that there was a booking email intended to be sent out recently. That date, as well as the original Sept 25th have come and gone and there is still no update which tells me something has gone wrong that stopped them sending out booking codes.
    Yeah - and only TWO posts on Facebook in the last month when previously there was like one every two days.

    Not even a facebook post advertising the pool girl of the month?

    And the last facebook post itself was over two weeks ago, with a smart alec "are you getting antsy?"

    Certainly does point towards some kind of issue that they thought was over, but maybe not quite yet.

    I feel that if we don't have anything by the end of this week its:

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    Re: Hey UMC - people are dropping like flies

    by acidbasement » Sun Oct 06, 2019 6:31 pm

    a) There are hardly any kids onboard. Fewer than 20.

    b) They interviewed me for 70000tons.tv last year, specifically so that I could talk about how awesome it is to bring my kids onboard.
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    Re: Hey UMC - people are dropping like flies

    by Cardest » Sun Oct 06, 2019 9:39 pm

    I'd say I'm about 85% still in for 2020.
    IF there even is a cruise at this point.

    If nothing by October 11th, I'd say this cruise is DEAD.


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    Re: Hey UMC - people are dropping like flies

    by Mark » Mon Oct 07, 2019 6:50 am

    Ah well, fuck it.
    Friends of mine are getting married on Malta next year and I just booked a ten day cruise starting the day after the marriage for half the money I had reserved for 70k.
    I still MIGHT go if the cruise really happens and the lineup is too good to pass but I really doubt this will happen :roll:
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    Re: Hey UMC - people are dropping like flies

    by bodomdragon » Mon Oct 07, 2019 11:49 am

    First, I never believe people saying "I'm most certainly out this time", "this is making me seriously consider dropping after 5 years", "this time my money will, almost for sure, go somewhere else", "organization sucks so I think I'm skipping next round". Never have, never will. I am quite confident that 95% of people making these statements end up buying their tickets when the time (and the excitement) arrive anyway. No matter how late.

    Second, I am 100% positive the boat is going to sell out again. The veterans/newcomers ratio may vary, or not, but it will sell out. For sure.

    Just my thoughts :)
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    Re: Hey UMC - people are dropping like flies

    by Amalu » Mon Oct 07, 2019 12:19 pm

    deathmetalpat wrote:
    Sun Oct 06, 2019 4:04 pm
    Okay let say 70,000 tons just priced this cruise to get into the black with the current cruiser makeup.
    I'm pretty sure they are making a healthy, but not enormous profit. It is not a welfare organization ;)
    deathmetalpat wrote:
    Sun Oct 06, 2019 4:04 pm
    So he just increases prices by 30% (just a guess) and says okay.Well this prices out Günther plus 3 as well and now he has priced out a lot of people.Even the people on the wait list.He likes the pricing because people of many economic levels can get on the boat.
    Get that. Still prices are rising from year to year as costs are rising as well. We really need to decide whether UMC wants cheap prices so that more people can afford it or if they want more profit by "thinning the herd" or whatever. Cannot be both, right?
    deathmetalpat wrote:
    Sun Oct 06, 2019 4:04 pm
    people think everything is included,it isn’t’ all those extra feedings add up.If you were on this cruise at the beginning you will understand,you had very limited options to eat and times.The difference between the early cruises and the later ones is huge food bill wise I imagine.
    So you're saying that UMC pays a fixed price for the charter, RC gets a huge cut on merch, keeps the majority of the drink money, gets a significant amount of the room fares AND sends a bill for served burgers in the Windjammer and fantastic Sorento's Pizza?
    You know that the food offering is not significantly different during a 70k then on any other RC cruise. The free stuff surely comes at a flat rate for UMC. They pay for the food and the ship's personnel etc. with the charter price.
    deathmetalpat wrote:
    Sun Oct 06, 2019 4:04 pm
    don’t hey bring your family.I am sure Andy would not rather do this ,but planning in advance and paying for airfare is just harder for families.
    Most of the people don't bring their kids. Sure there are a lot of couples but the only ones I've met where husband and wife metalheads. This is by no means a nice cruise if you're not into the music and the sub cultural as a whole. If my wife wouldn't love metal I wouldn't bring her. If she would like cruises in general, which she doesn't, I would take her on a normal 7 day cruise for less money.
    Metal couples drink and buy merch for two. There are singles who don't drink or don't want to afford merch.

    Furthermore a family with kids can easily book flights and hotel in advance and if the cruise does not come to pass, they drive up to Orlando and visit the mighty mouse land. Kids will still love their parents for one hell of a vacation.

    I just don't think that this all adds up. Waiting that long will result in older metalheads booking. With age very often come job positions with much more flexibility and higher salary. Now the younger crowd tends to consume more alcohol during a festival.
    I can see a lot of reasons why announcements could be delayed but not to filter out a part of your audience. Way to risky...
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    Mr.Kito
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    Re: Hey UMC - people are dropping like flies

    by Mr.Kito » Mon Oct 07, 2019 12:20 pm

    bodomdragon wrote:
    Mon Oct 07, 2019 11:49 am
    First, I never believe people saying "I'm most certainly out this time", "this is making me seriously consider dropping after 5 years", "this time my money will, almost for sure, go somewhere else", "organization sucks so I think I'm skipping next round". Never have, never will. I am quite confident that 95% of people making these statements end up buying their tickets when the time (and the excitement) arrive anyway. No matter how late.

    Second, I am 100% positive the boat is going to sell out again. The veterans/newcomers ratio may vary, or not, but it will sell out. For sure.

    Just my thoughts :)
    i usually think like that, too

    but this time, i'm seeing people actually dropping out and booking other vacations.

    and, in my case, I was considering a 6 person cabin because i was bringing one survivor and 4 newbies with me, but right now, we're just 3, looking for someone to fill a quad.
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  • Phoenix
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    Re: Hey UMC - people are dropping like flies

    by Phoenix » Mon Oct 07, 2019 12:48 pm

    bodomdragon wrote:
    Mon Oct 07, 2019 11:49 am
    A whole bunch of truth
    All of this is true. No one actually votes with their wallet, as brought up in a different thread. If I could still book off the vacation, my mind would probably be changed if the lineup was good too, and I will admit that freely. And yes, I stand by my assertion a couple months ago - if the cruise is happening (and it is until we get confirmation otherwise), it'll sell out again. It may be a very different crowd in 2020, but it'll still sell out.
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    cowboy71
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    Re: Hey UMC - people are dropping like flies

    by cowboy71 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 7:56 pm

    And another one down, and another one down, another one bites the dust:
    Am I the only one with sticker shock? The price for an interior quad is as much as I’ve spent on the entire cruise in the past. I am out.
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