[toby]

VERY surprised that Elvenking has more monthly listeners that Kamelot and Dark Tranquillity!

I mentioned this in the cripper thread, but monthly listeners can be pretty erratic as it only counts anyone who played the start of one of your songs in the last 28 days. Thus, it's easily skewed by new releases or playlist placements, or the lack of either.

...not sure what's up with Kamelot though as they just dropped a new single.

As far as real world voting by our audience via the app (sneak peak into Tuesdays stats)

Dark Tranquility has shot to the top/most popular band with 81.91% of cruisers having them as Must. (Out of the 376 people who have ranked them so far)
Kamelot is at #11 with 52.66% of cruisers having them as Must. (Out of the 676 people who ranked them)

And Elvenking, they are currently at #23 with 45.24% of cruisers having them as Must. (Out of the 462 people who ranked them)

If there was a must must category, Dark Tranquility and DragonForce would be there for me. I put my Musts as bands I must see 1 set at least. DT and DF are my only legit 2 setters so far.

[Danny24601]

HEADLINERS
Kreator
Nightwish

60 MINUTES
Amorphis
Dark Tranquillity (75 minutes?)
Dragonforce
Evergrey
Feuerschwanz (a guess)
Insomnium (45mins previous years but, announced second this time, I reckon they get promoted)
Kamelot (75 minutes?)
Keep of Kalessin
Korpiklaani
The Crown (a guess)
Uli Jon Roth

45 MINUTES
Abysmal Dawn
Amberian Dawn
Atrocity
Batushka
Belphegor
Bodyfarm
Cancer
Cryptosis
Cynic
Dear Mother
Deathless Legacy
Destruction
Edge of Paradise
Eleine
Elvenking
Empress
Eshtadur
Fallujah
Fractal Universe
Freedom Call
God Dethroned
Hideous Divinity
Hei'an
Iron Savior
Isole
Jungle Rot
Manegarm
Melechesh
Nightmare
Nothgard
Novembre
Obscura
Oceans of Slumber
Osyron
Rotting Christ
Sirenia
Vicious Rumors
Visions of Atlantis
Vreid
Warbringer
Wolfchant
Wormed

This list looks pretty good. Thinking about it now, only disagreements are that I'd say that Rotting Christ have a decent chance of promotion to 60, Dragonforce (and maybe Amorphis?) have a higher chance of 75 than DT, despite prior comments from me The Crown is probably 45, Elvenking is a solid 60 possibility, and Keep might get Moonsorrowed (45 + 60 album play).

[MuzakMaker]

Well now that Dragonforce is on board, I put them as my strongest contender for that mystery third headliner (which would be a shame to not have any newbie headliners but at least 2/3 of them it would be their first time headlining)

Second largest active listener base on every platform (only NW beats them)
Last time they were on board they were 60 Mins BUT have seen a nice resurgence in popularity thanks to a return to form album and Herman's STRONG internet presence

Most damning for me is the fact that on their most recent US tour, they were headlining either the same venues Kamelot was OR even bigger than Kamelot was on their most recent US tour

Only leg up Kamelot has over them is that they're prepping a new album cycle (but then again, they were promoting a new album last time they were on the boat and only got 60 mins)


Also worth looking at is diversity of genres. Amorphis/Insomnium/Dark Tranquility would all provide a nice difference in style compared to Nightwish and Kreator.
Kamelot is technically a different sub genre than Nightwish but they've got more of an overlap in fanbase than Nightwish than Dragonforce does.

[Godflesh]

Well now that Dragonforce is on board, I put them as my strongest contender for that mystery third headliner (which would be a shame to not have any newbie headliners but at least 2/3 of them it would be their first time headlining)

Second largest active listener base on every platform (only NW beats them)
Last time they were on board they were 60 Mins BUT have seen a nice resurgence in popularity thanks to a return to form album and Herman's STRONG internet presence

Most damning for me is the fact that on their most recent US tour, they were headlining either the same venues Kamelot was OR even bigger than Kamelot was on their most recent US tour

Only leg up Kamelot has over them is that they're prepping a new album cycle (but then again, they were promoting a new album last time they were on the boat and only got 60 mins)


Also worth looking at is diversity of genres. Amorphis/Insomnium/Dark Tranquility would all provide a nice difference in style compared to Nightwish and Kreator.
Kamelot is technically a different sub genre than Nightwish but they've got more of an overlap in fanbase than Nightwish than Dragonforce does.

Good analysis. The last time DRAGONFORCE was on (2016), the 75mners were ICED EARTH, CRADLE OF FILTH and CHILDREN OF BODOM, so there’s less competition (and egos?) this year.
Otherwise, KAMELOT vs DRAGONFORCE is 325,391 Spotify listeners vs 1,772,341.

[DarkMacek]

Yeah, I'm really not seeing how Dragonforce isn't the third headliner.

[cowboy71]

Okay, given that the next announcement is a group of 3 - that is almost guaranteed to be 3 x 45 minute bands.

That means we've only got 1 x 60min band left (Cannibal Corpse).

I've promoted DRAGONFORCE to the 3rd headliner spot, and moved ELVENKING to 60 minutes.

[creptorstatus]

That means we've only got 1 x 60min band left (Cannibal Corpse).

Got a secret source on this? Earlier this year they accidentally reposted an old facebook post that said they'd be doing 70k, but it was in error.

[Downvod]

People really think DF might me a headliner on this cruise? Wow. Last time I saw them live was opening for Kamelot, and that wasn’t too long ago.

Rotting Christ is def a 60 min set.

[cowboy71]

That means we've only got 1 x 60min band left (Cannibal Corpse).

Got a secret source on this? Earlier this year they accidentally reposted an old facebook post that said they'd be doing 70k, but it was in error.

Nah purely a hunch, given we are getting a lot of 2018 repeats and their relative proximity to the port

[creptorstatus]

Nah purely a hunch, given we are getting a lot of 2018 repeats and their relative proximity to the port

Well i hope you are right!

[creptorstatus]

People really think DF might me a headliner on this cruise? Wow. Last time I saw them live was opening for Kamelot, and that wasn’t too long ago.

if we are going by Spotify listeners as some form of ranking... Dragonforce def has like 6 times the amount that DT does, 2nd most out of all bands on the cruise atm. Them and Nightwish are the only bands to have 1 million+ monthly listeners.. every other band is pretty significantly lower, even Kreator.

But i know that dont mean a whole lot. So who knows. Guess well find out #SOOOOOOOOON

[MuzakMaker]

People really think DF might me a headliner on this cruise? Wow. Last time I saw them live was opening for Kamelot, and that wasn’t too long ago.

Rotting Christ is def a 60 min set.

It looks like you missed the tours I mentioned where DF is playing larger venues than Kamelot now

And yeah that DF/Kamelot tour might as well be ancient history at this point. That was 5ish years ago

[Downvod]

People really think DF might me a headliner on this cruise? Wow. Last time I saw them live was opening for Kamelot, and that wasn’t too long ago.

Rotting Christ is def a 60 min set.

It looks like you missed the tours I mentioned where DF is playing larger venues than Kamelot now

And yeah that DF/Kamelot tour might as well be ancient history at this point. That was 5ish years ago

Yes, i saw where you mentioned that. I bring up the tour from 5 years ago because i haven't heard anything new about Dragonforce since that point in time that seems to boost their relevance. Honestly, I only really recall hearing buzz about Dragonforce when they were at their peak like 15 years ago. These days, they just don't strike me as a headliner anymore.

[MuzakMaker]

People really think DF might me a headliner on this cruise? Wow. Last time I saw them live was opening for Kamelot, and that wasn’t too long ago.

Rotting Christ is def a 60 min set.

It looks like you missed the tours I mentioned where DF is playing larger venues than Kamelot now

And yeah that DF/Kamelot tour might as well be ancient history at this point. That was 5ish years ago

Yes, i saw where you mentioned that. I bring up the tour from 5 years ago because i haven't heard anything new about Dragonforce since that point in time that seems to boost their relevance. Honestly, I only really recall hearing buzz about Dragonforce when they were at their peak like 15 years ago. These days, they just don't strike me as a headliner anymore.

I mean, if we based things off of what people hear concerning bands they don't follow, I could easily say Rotting Christ doesn't even deserve 45 minutes considering I haven't even heard of anything by them being relevant in the past 10 years.

[Downvod]

It looks like you missed the tours I mentioned where DF is playing larger venues than Kamelot now

And yeah that DF/Kamelot tour might as well be ancient history at this point. That was 5ish years ago

Yes, i saw where you mentioned that. I bring up the tour from 5 years ago because i haven't heard anything new about Dragonforce since that point in time that seems to boost their relevance. Honestly, I only really recall hearing buzz about Dragonforce when they were at their peak like 15 years ago. These days, they just don't strike me as a headliner anymore.

I mean, if we based things off of what people hear concerning bands they don't follow, I could easily say Rotting Christ doesn't even deserve 45 minutes considering I haven't even heard of anything by them being relevant in the past 10 years.

I guess that was kind of my point. I usually expect the 75 min bands on 70k to be the bands that are almost obvious even if you don't follow them or that style. The 60 min bands are the ones who are very popular amongst a cult following, or big fans of that respective subgenre. DF at the height of their popularity may have been obvious, but now its clearly up for debate.

For example, I don't follow Sabaton any more than I do Dragonforce, but I instantly knew when they were booked that they would be a headliner for 2018. Of course, we don't always have 3 of those that are obvious, which is why there is a section of the forum for this to be deliberated. To be fair, i wouldn't have expected Michael Schenker to have a 75 min set last time, so anything is possible.

[cowboy71]

I guess that was kind of my point. I usually expect the 75 min bands on 70k to be the bands that are almost obvious even if you don't follow them or that style. The 60 min bands are the ones who are very popular amongst a cult following, or big fans of that respective subgenre. DF at the height of their popularity may have been obvious, but now its clearly up for debate.

For example, I don't follow Sabaton any more than I do Dragonforce, but I instantly knew when they were booked that they would be a headliner for 2018. Of course, we don't always have 3 of those that are obvious, which is why there is a section of the forum for this to be deliberated. To be fair, i wouldn't have expected Michael Schenker to have a 75 min set last time, so anything is possible.

Valid. Always the curveballs, hence this thread.

I mean did ANYONE ON THE PLANET expect Unearth to get a 75 minute slot in 2014????!

[bodomdragon]

Oh well, all your theories to the ground.

First year with a 90 minute band.
First year with only two bands with more than 60 minute sets.

[creptorstatus]

God damn. Hope Nightwish has some suprises in their set….

[MuzakMaker]

People really think DF might me a headliner on this cruise? Wow. Last time I saw them live was opening for Kamelot, and that wasn’t too long ago.

Rotting Christ is def a 60 min set.

Well that aged poorly

[toby]

Oh well, all your theories to the ground.

First year with a 90 minute band.
First year with only two bands with more than 60 minute sets.

Not only that, but first year that said 90 minute band has the ONLY set for that window. I can see that for the last night, but BOTH sets?

[Danny24601]

Oh well, all your theories to the ground.

First year with a 90 minute band.
First year with only two bands with more than 60 minute sets.

Not quite, bands in 2011 and 2012 got 90 minutes. Last one was Nightwish last time.

My prediction comments for headliners on FB/discord gave a 10% chance that changes to the running order would invalidate the 3 headliner assumption so I am giving myself solid part marks for that.

[Downvod]

People really think DF might me a headliner on this cruise? Wow. Last time I saw them live was opening for Kamelot, and that wasn’t too long ago.

Rotting Christ is def a 60 min set.

Well that aged poorly

So did your speculation about DF being a 75 minute set. Everyone was equally wrong. Let’s move on.

[MuzakMaker]

People really think DF might me a headliner on this cruise? Wow. Last time I saw them live was opening for Kamelot, and that wasn’t too long ago.

Rotting Christ is def a 60 min set.

Well that aged poorly

So did your speculation about DF being a 75 minute set. Everyone was equally wrong. Let’s move on.

My point was DF was a CONTENDER for headline, not that they were a headliner
Everyone was wrong about a third headliner

[cowboy71]

Yeah 2011 and 2012 we got 90 minute bands and 75 minute bands.

2011 - 90 minutes - Blind Guardian AND Saxon. 75 minutes - Testament and Amon Amarth.
2012 - 90 mintues - Nightwish AND Venom. 75 minutes - Children of Bodom.

[cowboy71]

Updated the first post.

Looks like we are getting:
1 x 90 (Nightwish)
1 x 75 (Kreator)
and 13 x 60 minute bands this year.

[Pellaz]

Oh well, all your theories to the ground.

First year with a 90 minute band.
First year with only two bands with more than 60 minute sets.

Not only that, but first year that said 90 minute band has the ONLY set for that window. I can see that for the last night, but BOTH sets?

I'm virtually certain that "no competition during either set" was part of Nightwish's contract.
And it worked; both shows were pretty packed.
Meanwhile some pretty big names (Dark Tranquillity, Amorphis) had a fair number of open seats when they played the theater.

[Sgt. B]

Oh well, all your theories to the ground.

First year with a 90 minute band.
First year with only two bands with more than 60 minute sets.

Not only that, but first year that said 90 minute band has the ONLY set for that window. I can see that for the last night, but BOTH sets?

I'm virtually certain that "no competition during either set" was part of Nightwish's contract.
And it worked; both shows were pretty packed.
Meanwhile some pretty big names (Dark Tranquillity, Amorphis) had a fair number of open seats when they played the theater.

Due to the pool deck stage delay, Feuerschwanz was up directly against Amorphis theater show.

[bodomdragon]

Oh well, all your theories to the ground.

First year with a 90 minute band.
First year with only two bands with more than 60 minute sets.

Not only that, but first year that said 90 minute band has the ONLY set for that window. I can see that for the last night, but BOTH sets?

I'm virtually certain that "no competition during either set" was part of Nightwish's contract.
And it worked; both shows were pretty packed.
Meanwhile some pretty big names (Dark Tranquillity, Amorphis) had a fair number of open seats when they played the theater.

I have a feeling that this "no one plays while Nightwish does" thingie was more of a strategic move from Andy than a contract clause from the band. He knew the boat wasn't full but he needed pictures where it looked like it was. He needs to show crowded venues. So let's try to get half the boat (or whatever) into Nightwish shows with no competition whatsoever.

[MuzakMaker]

Not only that, but first year that said 90 minute band has the ONLY set for that window. I can see that for the last night, but BOTH sets?

I'm virtually certain that "no competition during either set" was part of Nightwish's contract.
And it worked; both shows were pretty packed.
Meanwhile some pretty big names (Dark Tranquillity, Amorphis) had a fair number of open seats when they played the theater.

I have a feeling that this "no one plays while Nightwish does" thingie was more of a strategic move from Andy than a contract clause from the band. He knew the boat wasn't full but he needed pictures where it looked like it was. He needs to show crowded venues. So let's try to get half the boat (or whatever) into Nightwish shows with no competition whatsoever.

Considering they also had their gear at the pool deck all day (for an incredibly minimal set up to be frank), I'm more inclined to believe the lack of competition was either something they required in their rider or something Andy offered to convince them to come back to our lowly boat.